按》面对重大问题及大量信息，如条件允许，最好审慎阅读，能够一笔一笔的核查资料的可信度，当然是研究者的基本功。「中国消失2.8万条河流」确实骇人听闻。日前大西洋月刊、金融时报、香港南华早报及BBC皆有报导，前三者大意相同（BBC 则一贯是看看就好，不必太认真对待）。以下是查核资料的初步整理，供参阅：
1〉大西洋月刊（以下简称大刊）破题就说「20年前，中国还有大约5万条河流」，现在2.8万条河流不见了。
但该刊据以援引为若干依据的香港南华早报，3月27日报导，「比起60年前，中国河流的流域面积平方公里下降超过一半」。
60年，缩水变成20年，比较时点的差距3倍或40年，不可谓不大。如果按中共领导最新说法，再4个每十年翻一番，中国经济增长早已翻越小康社会了。
这应是报导掺水，把比较时点放大3倍的扭曲，首先讓大刊论证「过去30年中国迅速工业化和城市化」可能是河流消失的罪魁祸首，多少会失去说服力。任何人都会同意，中国工业化和城市化必然带来的一定河流环境的流失及破坏污染，或我们说可能还要推算更早？一般西媒认为过去30年中国才有工业化，更早前的新中国第一个5年计划起，往往被笼统概括为「黑暗时期」，这是对中国工业化的极大误解。
2〉重點在於「2.8万条河流不见了」。經過我們一笔一笔的核查资料后發現，被大刊作者抓住「小辮子」的問題，來自国务院水利普查办公室副主任庞进武3月27日接受人民日報記者采访时，庞进武表示：
● 第一次全国水利普查全面查清了我国水利的基本家底，第一次准确查明了我国流域面积在50平方公里及以上河流有45203条，流域面积100平方公里及以上河流有22909条。（2013年3月27日，人民日報）
● 这次全国水利普查澄清了上个世纪50年代以来沿用的一些关于河流数量惯用的数字。比如，上个世纪常用的数字为100平方公里河流条数5万多条，这是上世纪50年代国内专家利用当时部分可用的1:30万地图进行估算获得。--本次普查使用覆盖全国国土面积的国家最新1：5万基础地理信息数据成果和2.5m分辨率遥感影像数据。（2013年3月27日，人民日報）
首先,，这是第一次中国水利普查，采用「最新1：5万基础地理信息数据」VS「1:30万地图」，因属于地理信息数据，太专业我们无法理解。但至少「地理信息数据」与「地图」，兩者之差距何止千里。
第二，庞进武主動提出「上个世纪常用的数字为100平方公里河流条数5万多条」，2011年水利普查「流域面积100平方公里及以上河流有22909条」，其數量減少原因是，上个世纪50年代以来沿用的「5万多条」，被現在採用「基础地理信息数据成果和2.5m分辨率遥感影像数据」的統計方法，修正為「22,909条」。
于是我们看清楚了，What Happened? 这才是「2.8万条河流不见了」的真相。大刊作者不仅把上个世纪50年代至2011年的时间跨度给魔术一般取消，扭曲为「20年前，中国还有大约5万条河流」，「现在2.8万条河流不见了」。而且，还有意扭曲了任何科学统计方法及数据被修正、或估计错误被修正的常理与进步意义。更重要的，「流域面积在50平方公里及以上河流有45203条」被隱去不提。
也就是说，从「流域面积50平方公里」vs「流域面积100平方公里」之间的数量差距，重点指的是「45,203条」vs「22,909条」的流域面积下降，而不是河流数量的消失（中国河流的家底仍有45,203条）。但这个简单的算数加减，被大刊故意抹去。于是「2.8万条河流不见了」终于横空出世，它不折不扣只是一个「搏眼球」的标题而已。
也就是说，从「流域面积50平方公里」vs「流域面积100平方公里」之间的数量差距，重点指的是「45,203条」vs「22,909条」的流域面积下降，而不是河流数量的消失（中国河流的家底仍有45,203条）。但这个简单的算数加减，被大刊故意抹去。于是「2.8万条河流不见了」终于横空出世，它不折不扣只是一个「搏眼球」的标题而已。
美国《新闻周刊》曾有一个封面，「Everything
you know about China is WRONG」，我们对大刊没有特别成见，也部分同意「中国迅速工业化和城市化」可能是河流消失的罪魁祸首，也认为这是中国投资导向型增长模式的工业化道路，渐渐走向经济转型与内需型服务业的代价与阵痛。套句林毅夫教授的话，这是一个任何国家皆「绕不过去的槛」。但，我们几乎天天都在忍受西媒不真实的说三道四。更多时候则是供我们看清楚世界与看请楚自已的反面教材。
28,000 Rivers Disappeared in China: What Happened?
29/04/2013 |ANGEL HSU AND WILLIAM MIAO｜The Atlantic
As recently as 20 years ago, there were an estimated 50,000 rivers in China, each covering a flow area of at least 60 square miles. But now, according to China's First National Census of Water, more than 28,000 of these rivers are missing. To put this number into context, China's lost rivers are almost equivalent, in terms of basin area, to the United States losing the entire Mississippi River.
Why have these rivers "vanished" from the maps and national records?
Official explanations from the Chinese government have attributed the significant reduction to statistical discrepancies, water and soil loss, and climate change.
"The disparity in numbers was caused mainly by inaccurate estimates in the past, as well as climate change and water and soil loss. Due to limited technology in the past, the previous figures were estimated using incomplete topographic maps dating back to the 1950s," said Huang He, China's Deputy Director of the Ministry of Water Resources, in an interview with theSouth China Morning Post.
While this explanation seems plausible, Chinese web users, an active and formidable force for raising environmental issues with the Chinese government, are not satisfied. One user named Yami Laoliu, writing on the popular Chinese social media platform Sina Weibo, voiced skepticism: "I am surprised to learn that 28,000 rivers have already disappeared in the map. Is it natural disaster? Or man-made mistake? I think both played a role, but it was mainly a man-made mistake."
Peter Gleick, president of the Pacific Institute and a leading water expert agrees: "Climate change is a real threat to the world's resources, and we already see evidence of impacts on water availability, quality, and extreme events. But the water challenges in China are far greater than just climate change," he said.
Pinning the rivers' disappearance on climate change is politically palatable right now, and the human origin of global warming is not controversial in China. But in an unusual twist, blaming climate change allows officials to absolve themselves of the poor management, governance, lack of groundwater extraction controls, and rapid development that are more likely culprits for the river's disappearances.
"As China's population and economy have rapidly grown, the country has experienced serious degradation of its water resources, including massive overuse and contamination," Gleick said. "The 'disappearance' of major rivers and streams is far more likely to be directly connected to uncontrolled and unsustainable extraction of water for industry and agriculture, though climate change may play a greater role in the future."
***
The past 30 years in which these rivers vanished have coincided with a phase of rapid industrialization and urban growth in China. From 1990 to 2000, urban areas expanded by more than 5,000 square miles, an area the size of Puerto Rico, and the expanding economy has correspondingly strained water and energy resources. In Yale University's 2012 Environmental Performance Index, China is one of the worst performers (ranked 116 out of 132 countries) with respect to its performance on changes in water quantity due to consumption, including industrial, agricultural, and household uses.
Poor management of water resources has also exacerbated the situation. The main water resource law in China only requires permits for groundwater extractions for "large-scale" projects. The lack of specificity in this language has led to what Gleick says is substantial overdraft of groundwater throughout the country. Weak water governance also caused last September's red water flow in to the Yangtze River, an occurrence that left even Chinese officials perplexed.
What about the statistical discrepancies that the government says could have factored in to the rivers' disappearance? While some updates to river classification are plausible, cartography and mapping techniques have been very sophisticated in China for many years. One user on Sina Weibo tweeted an old map of waterways for Qingdao, showing abundant waterways in considerable detail. The maps are accurate and Qingdao's rivers have not been wiped away by "improved surveying methods" -- they have simply been converted into Qingdao's sprawling roadways, said one of the city's urban historians.
So why is the Chinese government blaming only climate change and statistical inaccuracies? Climate change is an easy and popular scapegoat and allows the government to save face by pinning the disappearance on natural causes rather than anthropogenic (and arguably preventable) ones.
However, as the Chinese online reaction demonstrates in this case and in recent air pollution events, the Chinese public may not be as willing to accept such a backseat approach to environmental management. Given the current state of the waterways and growing demand for water in China, authorities would be better served by thoroughly examining the root causes of the challenge and striving to be more transparent about both the certainties and the uncertainties surrounding the issue.
New study shows dramatic fall in number of rivers in China
27/03/2013 |Chris Luo｜South China Morning Post
The number of rivers in China with catchment areas of at least 100 square kilometres has dropped by more than 50 per cent compared with 60 years ago, a landmark survey on national water resources reveals.
China’s Ministry of Water Resources on Tuesday released its first ever national census of water – conducted by up to 800,000 surveyors.
The official study said there were 22,909 rivers in China which had catchment areas of at least 100 sq km – as of the end of 2011. This is less than half the government’s previously estimated figure of over 50,000.
The large fall in the number of these rivers has prompted fears that China’s rapid economic development has also caused considerable water and soil loss.
But Huang He, deputy director of the group in charge of the census, said the disparity in the numbers was caused mainly by inaccurate estimates in the past, as well as climate change and water and soil loss.
Due to limited technology in the past, the previous figures were estimated using incomplete topographical maps dating back to the 1950s, he explained.
Huang said many figures released in the new study had not been known before. “For example, we used to think China had 8,700 water reservoirs, but the census shows the number has now reached 98,002.” The latest research, which took three years to complete, is the first comprehensive study to show the precise number of waterways, reservoirs and irrigation zones in China. It also reveals the different infrastructure projects in place to protect China from natural disasters.
The findings also showed China still has a long way to go before it develops adequate flood prevention measures.
“Of all the river sections that require constructions for flood prevention, 33 per cent have been undergoing work, while only 17 per cent are qualified for use.” It noted that improvements to them were still inadequate – particularly for medium and small rivers.
The study revealed that China had over 93,000 reservoirs, but warned it had a limited ability to regulate and control water resources due to their small water capacities.
The mainland regularly battles deadly floods and downpours which affect millions each year. More than 66 per cent of the population and 90 per cent of all cities are located in regions threatened by floods. Last year, floods in Beijing killed more than 70 people and disrupted over 1.6 million residents.
Floods in China can be devastating. In 1998, a catastrophic flood in Yangtze River region killed more than 3,000, affected 223 million people and cost the mainland 167 billion yuan.
原文链接：http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1200961/new-study-shows-dramatic-fall-number-rivers-china
27/03/2013 ｜人民网
人民网北京3月27日电 （记者 杨铁虎）“这次全国水利普查首次全面摸清了我国水利的基本家底，准确查明了我国的河流数量。” 水利部副总工程师、国务院水利普查办公室副主任庞进武27日下午在此间接受人民网记者采访时表示。
2010-2012年，国务院组织开展了第一次全国水利普查。普查的标准时间点为2011年12月31日，普查时期为2011年度。普查范围为中华人民共和国境内（未含香港特别行政区、澳门特别行政区和台湾地区）河流湖泊、水利工程、重点经济社会取用水户以及水利单位等。普查主要内容包括河流湖泊基本情况、水利工程基本情况、经济社会用水情况、河流湖泊治理保护情况、水土保持情况、水利行业能力建设情况。
3月26日，水利部、国家统计局对外正式发布了《第一次全国水利普查公报》。
庞进武介绍说，第一次全国水利普查全面查清了我国水利的基本家底，第一次准确查明了我国流域面积在50平方公里及以上河流有45203条，流域面积100平方公里及以上河流有22909条。
庞进武指出，这次全国水利普查澄清了上个世纪50年代以来沿用的一些关于河流数量惯用的数字。比如，上个世纪常用的数字为100平方公里河流条数5万多条，这是上世纪50年代国内专家利用当时部分可用的1:30万地图进行估算获得。
庞进武表示，本次普查使用覆盖全国国土面积的国家最新1：5万基础地理信息数据成果和2.5m分辨率遥感影像数据，通过采用内业分析提取河流基础信息，再通过外业勘察、复核补充等手段，准确查明了我国河流数量，使我们对我国江河的认识更加完整和真实。
据悉，此次水利普查填补了我国与水有关的国情国力信息空白，对于科学谋划水利长远发展、提高水利服务经济社会发展能力，实现水资源可持续利用具有十分重大的意义。
全国水利普查公报发布 首次摸清我国水利“家底”
27/03/2013 ｜人民网
经国务院批准，水利部、国家统计局26日正式发布《第一次全国水利普查公报》。通过历时3年的普查，查清了我国江河湖泊基本情况。第一次全国水利普查标准时点为 2011年12月31日，时期资料为2011年度。普查主要内容包括河湖基本情况、水利工程基本情况、经济社会用水情况、河湖开发治理情况、水土保持情况、水利行业能力建设情况。
水利部副部长、国务院水利普查办主任矫勇介绍，通过这次普查摸清了水利家底，本次水利普查调查对象多、分布广，为确保数据真实可靠，本次普查实施严格的全过程质量控制、分级分类质量控制，综合运用了先进技术与方法，近100万普查人员参与。
——第一次查清全国水库总数。全国共有水库98002座，总库容9323.12亿立方米。其中：已建水库97246座，总库容8104.10亿立方米；在建水库756座，总库容1219.02亿立方米。
——第一次查清了流域面积在50平方公里以上的河流，共有45203条，总长度为150.85万公里。
——第一次查清了9000多万个小微型水电站、水闸、泵站、地下水井、农村供水工程数量和分布情况。
——第一次查清了50亩以上灌区数量和面积。全国共有灌溉面积10.02亿亩，其中耕地灌溉面积9.22亿亩，非耕地灌溉面积0.80亿亩。
——第一次查清了青海湖、西藏纳木错、新疆艾比湖等西部重要湖泊容积。
——查清经济社会用水总量。2011年度用水量为6213.2亿立方米，其中农业用水4168.2亿立方米，占到67%，农业仍是用水大户。
矫勇分析，从本次普查成果看，我国基本形成了覆盖城市乡村、功能较为齐全的水利基础设施体系，比如全国建成农村供水工程5887.46万处，总受益人口达到8.12亿人。但也要看到水利依然存在很多薄弱环节。比如，全国有防洪任务的河段中，已治理的只占33%，已治理且达标的仅占17%，尤其是中小河流治理率低；全国水库总库容占河川径流量的34%，兴利库容仅占16.8%，对江河水资源的调控能力不强；全国以供水和灌溉为主的水库虽然有9.3万多座，兴利库容只有1700多亿立方米，供水保障能力较弱；全国灌溉渠道衬砌长度不到30%，中小灌区的灌溉效率较低。
